DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/26 11:31
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans lead at midday in mixed trade.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures down 170
points. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 40 higher.
Energies are mixed with crude flat. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious
metals are weaker with gold down 4.20.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower in quiet midday trade with the market
looking to consolidate the midweek reversal Fieldwork should expand south of
I-80 into the warming trend into the weekend. The second crop areas of Brazil
look to remain on the dry side in the near term as well, with some potential
improvement in the extended forecast as we get deeper in their growing season.
Ethanol margins have narrowed with corn firming and ethanol futures slipping
from the recent highs, fading back to $1.46. The USDA reported a sale on the
daily wire of 107,300 metric tons of corn sold to unknown and the weekly sales
were a bit softer at 697,100 metric tons of old crop, and -76,600 of new. On
the July chart we are just above the 20-day at $3.92 which remains support,
with the upper bolliger band at $4.02 resistance.
Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher midday with trade building back from
the test of support early in the week after early two sided trade. Meal is $3
to $4 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. The recent pattern in South
America should remain intact near term allowing for greater progress in Brazil
harvesting, with the stronger dollar and cheaper real encouraging sales and
export business, with nothing for the US on the daily wire again. Weekly sales
were mixed at 371,300 metric tons of old, 166,500 of new crop, 223,700 metric
tons of meal, 40,800 of new meal, and 11,200 of oil. Trade will be looking for
signs of additional acres, with the weather challenges rolling acres over from
wheat and corn. On the July contract, trade has remained below the 20-day at
$10.49, with the 100-day at $10.25 as the next level of support.
Wheat trade is 2 to 8 cents lower with the stronger dollar crimping upside
with a lack of a fresh weather story. Warmer conditions coming should help the
crop maturity catch up with the cool recent temps putting the crop behind,
while moisture mostly remains short, with follow up rains moved staying mostly
to the east. Spring wheat-growing areas look more open but have plenty of
ground to cover. The Black Sea area will continue to dominate export trade with
spring weather not triggering any major excitement thus far. Export offers out
of the Black Sea area were $198 a ton on the tenders yesterday. Weekly export
sales improved at 297,200 of metric tons of old crop, and 280,700 of new. On
the July Kansas City contract support is the 50-day at $5.15 support after we
moved through it this yesterday, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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